ABC News Announcement: All-New Forecasting Model for the 2024 Presidential Election.
ABC News announced that its renowned data journalism organization, 538, launched its all-new forecasting model for the 2024 presidential election. The model will constantly update with newly approved polls as they publish updates based on key indicators, including the polls' historical accuracy and methodological transparency. The tool will examine how reliable polling and other data are at predicting election outcomes from today through election day 2024.
SEE WHO IS FAVORED TO WIN THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
The model is available on ABCNews.com/538, along with a detailed methodology explaining how the model was built from the ground up. Widget integrations will be available on the website's home page in the coming weeks.
"The forecast formalizes our theories of voter behavior, uncertainty in the polls, and other factors," said G. Elliott Morris, editorial director of data analytics for ABC News. "It asks how likely either candidate is to win the election, given their position in the polls, the time remaining until election day, and how accurate the polls have been in the past. It's a unique new way of using various data to answer the question: How much should I trust these polls?"
The initial forecast reflects a very close race between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. The race remains especially close in key swing states, with Trump leading current polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.
The model also makes forecasts for major third-party candidates, including Robert F Kennedy Jr., who currently has a significant chance of affecting the election outcome. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast at this stage of the campaign.
Forthcoming 538 articles based on the model will spotlight regular election updates on where the race stands, the fundamental indicators of the race, and how reliable the polls are at forecasting outcomes over time. 538 will also report on how the model estimates polls change from now to the conventions and election day, as well as polling bias and how the model processes it, and a comparison of what the model says today versus what it determined at this point in previous presidential elections years, including 2020, 2016, 2012 and more.
About 538: ABC News' 538 is a trusted data journalism source for poll aggregation and election-forecasting models for U.S. elections, political reporting and more. 538's models and polling data are used across ABC News' broadcast, streaming and digital channels.